← MSG Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at MSG Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 14.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 27.2% | -17.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sablemere, Warden's Grip | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |